Afghanistan Briefing by Jeffrey McCausland

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Afghanistan Briefing by Jeffrey McCausland

29 Oct 2009

Dr Jeffrey McCausland discusses the current situation in Afghanistan, and the conditions for future success in the country. He argues that Afghanistan makes Iraq look easy. He begins by discussing the increased number of casualties in Afghanistan and the reasons for this; and identifies the opponents in the conflict.

McCausland argues that the politics of the conflict are more important than the military conditions on the battlefield. A synergised strategy through combat operations, civil security operations, information, providing governance, essential social services and economic development is required for success and to convince people to support the government. McCausland questions whether an Afghan government that is perceived to be legitimate by the people can ever be created, particularly because of the August 2009 elections, the behaviour of President Karzai and the exponential growth of poppy production. Counterinsurgency depends on creating a government that can attract people away from opponents.

McCausland argues that economic development is key given the astounding level of deprivation. Furthermore, success in Afghanistan is linked to success in the region and in particular, Pakistan. He concludes that a combination of a counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency strategy will likely call for increased deployment of US forces and must be careful to avoid the widespread collateral damage that alienates the population. The military surge has to be accompanied by a civilian surge. This effort has to encourage disaffected Taliban to change sides and should be decentralised.