The World in 2050

The World in 2050

22 Sep 2009

Four members of the James Martin 21st Century School discuss the School's work and highlight four key areas that are likely to have a huge impact on the sustainability of the world's population: global risk; energy; human modification; and population growth and demographic shifts.

Dr Ian Goldin asks why predictions about the future often turn out to be wrong. He argues that the recent history of globalisation has been an incredible coming-together of humanity, and an explosion of innovation, surpassing anything seen in the last 1000 years. He claims that the biggest uncertainly is fertility, as the world is converging below replacement levels. While the ageing population will be a major burden on the youth, they may be replaced by migration. He continues by discussing the ‘information big bang’, specifically the evolution of computer power. He believes that whilst risks will continue to come from nature, they will increasingly come from human activity. The biggest threat is climate change, but these risk also include also pandemics such as H1N1. As globalisation continues to shrink the world, the frequency and severity of these threats is only likely to increase. Another great risk we face is that we are stuck with a global governance system that that has not changed since the Second World War. Finally, Goldin believes that it is in our power to eradicate poverty and disease by 2050 - but it also within our power to destroy ourselves.

Dr Malcolm McCulloch notes that human energy use is rapidly increasing, and that we are on a climate change trajectory that is far worse than the worst-case scenario predicted five years ago. He notes that in nature there is a cyclical system, whereby one animal's or organism’s waste is another’s nutrition. However humanity is addicted to single use resources. If humanity continues in the manner in which it previously has then energy use will increase by three times and the temperature of the earth by six degrees. The cost of transport and food will rise massively and humanity would likely not survive past 2100.

Professor Julian Savulescu discusses the human genome, personalised genomes, cloning, stem cells and purely artificial life. He believes we will see radical biological modification of humans. Any genes in the plant or animal kingdom can potentially be used to enhance humans – the vision of a hawk; the hearing of a dog; the sonar of a bat. He states that humans are altruistic, but only to about 150 people - their immediate and extended family and their friends. Yet the problems humanity faces, such as climate change, require humans to cooperate and act altruistically in ways they are not disposed to behave. In order to make progress we have to understand our own biological limitations. Savulescu believes that by 2050 there will be hope in bio-liberation, but that the root of bio-threat will remain large.

Professor Sarah Harper discusses the problems that are likely to arise as the world's population continues to age. By 2050 the global population is likely to swell to 9 billion people, but 3 billion people will be aged over 50. As we witness increasing age, we will also see falling fertility in most parts of the world. As medical science constantly progresses and even chronically ill people begin to live longer, generational succession will be an issue, as wealth and status will not be handed down the family line until much later in life. Harper's greatest concern is in human longevity becoming the new global inequality - the West must ensure that a child born in Africa has the same potential longevity as a child born in the West.

BUY THE DVD

Speakers

Ian Goldin

Director of the Oxford Martin School
Julian Savulescu

Philosopher and bioethicist
Malcolm McCulloch

Director, Institute for Carbon and Energy Reduction in Transport, 21st Century School
Sarah Harper

Director of the Oxford Institute of Ageing, University of Oxford