The future of Iraq

The future of Iraq

11 Dec 2007

In a deviation from the usual Intelligence Squared debate format, the panel present their views on the current situation in Iraq, and discuss which strategy, out of three motions proposed, the Allies should pursue in Iraq.

Arguing that the post-2007 'surge' strategy is working (proposition one) are William Shawcross and Lt. Peter Hegseth. William Shawcross hints at the chaos that would spread across Iraq if Allied troops were to pull out and leave the country at the mercy of al-Qaeda, while Lt. Peter Hegseth draws on his experiences in Iraq to suggest that the post-2007 counter insurgency tactics have brought a greater degree of security to Iraq, and led to a lessening in violence and sectarian killings. He claims that before Allied troops leave, it is necessary to establish a base level of security to ensure that political negotiations can succeed.

Arguing for a withdrawal of troops as part of a negotiated settlement (quid pro quo, proposal two) are Sir Christopher Meyer and Iraqi politician Ali Allawi. Sir Christopher Meyer explains that Allied forces are logistically unable to either leave immediately or "stay the course", and that negotiated settlement, involving all religious and ethnic groups within Iraq, as well as neighbouring states, is the only possible course of action. Ali Allawi agrees, and suggests that the United States will pay a huge part in the future of Iraq because of the resources it has so far expended in waging war there. But, he says, all Allied forces must withdraw once the "architecture of peace" has been put in place.

The case for Allied forces to leave Iraq as soon as possible (proposition three) is endorsed by Tony Benn and Rory Stewart OBE. Tony Benn makes the case that the occupation was the result of an illegal war and that Allied forces, fighting an unwinnable battle, should be withdrawn immediately. Rory Stewart agrees that the war is unwinnable and is only continued to spare the blushes of the Allied forces. He cites the example of the Italian forces, who, by refusing to leave their base, allowed Iraqi forces to assume a greater degree of responsibility in policing local communities, leading to greater stability in the areas under their control.

First Vote: 434 for Stay, 742 for quid pro quo, 563 for Leave, 455 Don’t Know

Final Vote: 668 for Stay, 806 for quid pro quo, 630 for Leave, 18 Don’t Know

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