The Jasmine Revolution will wither in North Africa, The Royal Society, 16 May

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The Jasmine Revolution will wither in North Africa: It won't meet the expectations of youth

16 May 2011

On the 16th May, with uprisings in Libya and Syria still in full swing, a student audience convened at the Royal Society for a debate organised by the International Debate Education Association (IDEA), the Open Society Foundation (OSF), IQ2, the British Council along with the International Herald Tribune, the events media partner. The motion: 'The Jasmine Revolution will wither in North Africa: it won't meet the expectations of youth'.

The debate begins with Egyptian youth activist Nora Ayman arguing for the motion, that conditions are not yet ripe for democracy to take hold in North Africa. Norman Stone, Professor of History at Bilkent University, Ankara, warns of a repeat of the 1848 revolutions, whose end saw much worse governments in power than there had been to start. British writer and commentator Douglas Murray highlights that the most ruthless dictatorships have comfortably withstood rebel advances and that without considerable Western intervention, a democratic future is still, unfortunately, just a vision.

First to speak for the opposition is Egyptian Ahmed Naguib, who argues that too substantial advances have been made for North Africa to turn back. Roger Cohen a columnist for The New York Times and the International Herald Tribune and a reporter in Tahrir Square during the uprisings, acknowledges that the challenges for North Africa are great, but nevertheless sees the proposition's case as pessimistic not realistic. Fawaz Gerges, Professor of Middle Eastern Politics and International Relations at the London School of Economics, explains that a psychological change has taken place across North Africa, and that the voices of those millions that are now awakened, cannot be ignored by the military.

First vote: 46 For, 75 Against, 55 Don't know

Final vote: 40 For, 148 Against, 12 Don't know

Speakers for the motion

Nora Ayman

23-year-old corporate analyst at the National Bank of Egypt. Graduated from Cairo University, Faculty of Economics and Political Science.
Douglas Murray

Author and journalist, and Associate Director of the Henry Jackson Society
Professor Norman Stone

Professor of International Relations at Bilkent University, Ankara. He was Professor of Modern History at Oxford University from 1984-1997.

Chair

Nik Gowing

Main presenter, BBC World News.

Speakers against the motion

Roger Cohen

Columnist for The New York Times and the International Herald Tribune
Fawaz Gerges

Professor of Middle Eastern Politics and International Relations at the London School of Economics He also holds the Emirates Chair of the Contemporary Middle East.
Ahmed Naguib

33-year-old Advising and Exchanges Director for AMIDEAST in Cairo, and prominent mobiliser of youth in the Egyptian revolution of 2011

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